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Posts Tagged ‘mortgage rates’

5 Aug 8 2013 @ 1:41pm by Matt Smith in Capital Markets, Economy, Global Energy

Dot-to-Dot-to-Not-to…What?!

Back in late April I wrote a post called ‘Dot-to-Dot-to…Not?’, which joined the dots from mortgage rates to oil prices…and how their price evolution had been counterintuitive to the move in equity markets: the risk aversion exhibited by fixed income markets and caution shown by oil prices did not jive with the emphatic rally seen in equities. Just a few months later it seems worth revisiting the subject, as there has been some dramatic moves since and some key takeaways to, um, takeaway. » read more

0 Apr 25 2013 @ 3:13pm by Matt Smith in Capital Markets, Crude Oil, Economy, Global Energy, risk management

Dot-to-Dot-to…Not?

My favorite moment of the working day is doing a dot-to-dot. And it happens every morning, after booting up my computer; I look across the various asset classes, and start connecting the dots.

After the first few screens, it becomes progressively easier to predict what is coming next: dollar down = risk on, equities up = bond prices down, risk off = metals down. But joining the dots has gone askew recently. So from the starting point of mortgage rates to a crude conclusion, here’s how joining the dots isn’t as simple as going from A to B. » read more

0 Sep 20 2012 @ 10:55am by Matt Smith in Crude Oil, energy consulting, Global Energy, risk management

The Tipping Point

Malcolm Gladwell is a total dude. He is the author of the fine book ‘Blink’ (about how choices aren’t as simple as they seem) and the splendid ‘Outliers’ (about the quirks which have made certain people successful). He also reminds me of Krusty the Clown. He too is the author of ‘The Tipping Point’, which is about how patterns and factors are at play in virtually every influential trend. Financial markets (and in Energyland™, of course) are awash with tipping points at the moment; here are but a few.

» read more