2 Feb 18 2015 @ 12:59pm by Matt Smith in Crude Oil, Global Energy

The US Crude Conundrum

The current US oil market is in the midst of a slugfest reminiscent of a Rocky fight, as competing influences face off against one another. In one corner we have rising US shale oil production, while in the opposing corner we have a precipitously falling rig count. Out of this duking duo, one is going to provide a sucker punch to prices. The question is….which? » read more

4 Feb 10 2015 @ 9:57pm by Matt Smith in Global Energy, Natural Gas, risk management


Despite an unrelenting focus on the recent rout in oil, there have been a number of other significant swoonings across commodityland™ which have also been rather noteworthy. This played out naturally in my head as ‘noily’ (aka, ‘not about oil’…although, as we know, everything is interlinked).

As it turns out, noil is actually a word – meaning a short fiber left over from spinning silk. Trying to find an istockphoto image of said noil, this picture of a gnarly alpaca showed up instead. I then looked up ‘no oil’, and an alpaca image showed up again. Fate it would seem. So here is a post which is not about spinning silk, gnarly alpacas, or oil. » read more

1 Feb 2 2015 @ 9:46am by Matt Smith in Crude Oil

File Under: Punxsutawney Phil and Oil Production

This morning’s appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box gave me the opportunity to compare the predictive power of Punxsutawney Phil to the US oil rig count. For rigs are likely to continue to drop into spring, while US production will continue to edge higher. Putting faith in the rig count to lower oil production is like relying on a groundhog to predict the weather. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to part of the interview – I’m the bookends to Jim Iuorio’s economic bit in the middle:

4 Jan 30 2015 @ 11:43am by Matt Smith in Crude Oil, Economy, risk management

Chuck Bucks!

The price drop we have seen at the pump in recent months has been nothing short of spectacular. It has provided the equivalent of a huge tax cut to the US consumer, considerably boosting disposable income (chuck bucks!*). But as my fellow countryman Geoffrey Chaucer said some 640 years ago, all good things must come to an end. So as retail gasoline prices begin their seasonal ascent, let us assess the impact of their precipitous plunge, and what it means looking ahead:  » read more

2 Jan 27 2015 @ 5:39am by Matt Smith in Crude Oil, Global Energy

File Under: Rig Counts, Capex and Company Consolidation

It was a late night for me as I appeared on CNBC Asia to respond to OPEC Secretary-General El-Badri’s comments that oil prices are bottoming out. His concerns about a lack of investment in the oil and gas sector seem a more legitimate argument, something we discuss via companies cutting their capital expenditures and a falling rig count. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to the clip: