Hum dee dum. I have some more creative / humorous posts in the works (I promise), but despite feeling like I am gipping you this week, I wanted to share some of the more intriguing points from some recent reports from two members of ‘big oil‘, BP and Exxon Mobil. The two chunky outlooks take a look at the energy sector out to 2030, and from my tortilla-like perspective, here’s the top ten tidbits:
1) Global energy demand in 2030 will be 35% higher than it was in 2005. OECD demand will be essentially flat (a hat-tip to increasing efficiencies), while non-OECD demand will be about 75% higher than OECD demand (Exxon Mobil).
2) Global transportation-related energy demand will rise by nearly 40% from 2005 to 2030, with 1.2 billion light duty vehicles on the roads. Three quarters of this growth in vehicles will come from non-OECD countries (Exxon Mobil).
4) China’s accounts for 47% of current global coal consumption, and this is likely to rise to 53% by 2030 (BP). OECD coal demand will fall by almost 50% from 2005 to 2030, while non-OECD demand is set to rise by over 60%. (Exxon Mobil).
5) The importance of Opec is set to grow, as their share of global production is set to increase from 40% currently to 46% by 2030 (BP).
6) Strong growth in energy consumption by non-OECD countries means global emissions in 2030 will be 27% higher than today, due to their reliance on coal (BP). Emissions in OECD countries however, will be back to 1980 levels in 2030 (Exxon Mobil).
7) Canadian oil sands and biofuels will provide more than 5% of the world’s demand for liquid fuels by 2030 (Exxon Mobil).
8) Energy used to generate power remains the fastest growing sector, accounting for 57% of growth in primary energy by 2030 (BP). Further, residential/commercial energy consumption will account for more than 35% of global electricity, up from 25% in 2005 (Exxon Mobil).
9) World primary energy sources of oil, coal, and natural gas are set to converge by 2030, each taking up market share of approximately 26%. This leaves hydro, nuclear, and renewables to provide approximately 7% each (BP).
10) Global energy demand by 2030 is projected to be six times larger than the level in 1950 (Exxon Mobil).