I was super-happy to be on CNBC Asia this evening and to be given the opportunity to rant about some of the usual suspects influencing the market: OPEC, rig counts, and US production, among others. Hark, click on the below non-mugshot to launch to the clip:
The current US oil market is in the midst of a slugfest reminiscent of a Rocky fight, as competing influences face off against one another. In one corner we have rising US shale oil production, while in the opposing corner we have a precipitously falling rig count. Out of this duking duo, one is going to provide a sucker punch to prices. The question is….which? » read more
Despite an unrelenting focus on the recent rout in oil, there have been a number of other significant swoonings across commodityland™ which have also been rather noteworthy. This played out naturally in my head as ‘noily’ (aka, ‘not about oil’…although, as we know, everything is interlinked).
As it turns out, noil is actually a word – meaning a short fiber left over from spinning silk. Trying to find an istockphoto image of said noil, this picture of a gnarly alpaca showed up instead. I then looked up ‘no oil’, and an alpaca image showed up again. Fate it would seem. So here is a post which is not about spinning silk, gnarly alpacas, or oil. » read more
This morning’s appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box gave me the opportunity to compare the predictive power of Punxsutawney Phil to the US oil rig count. For rigs are likely to continue to drop into spring, while US production will continue to edge higher. Putting faith in the rig count to lower oil production is like relying on a groundhog to predict the weather. Hark, click on the below mugshot to launch to part of the interview – I’m the bookends to Jim Iuorio’s economic bit in the middle:
The price drop we have seen at the pump in recent months has been nothing short of spectacular. It has provided the equivalent of a huge tax cut to the US consumer, considerably boosting disposable income (chuck bucks!*). But as my fellow countryman Geoffrey Chaucer said some 640 years ago, all good things must come to an end. So as retail gasoline prices begin their seasonal ascent, let us assess the impact of their precipitous plunge, and what it means looking ahead: » read more